Abstract:

A novel approach for engineering application to human error probability quantification is presented based on an overview of the existing human reliability analysis methods. The set of performance shaping factors is classified as two subsets of dominant factors and adjusting factors respectively. Firstly, the dominant factors are used to determine the probabilities of three behavior modes. The basic probability and its interval of human error for each behavior mode are given. Secondly, the basic probability and its interval are modified by the adjusting factors, and the total probability of human error is calculated by a total probability formula. Finally, a simple example is introduced, and the consistency and validity of the presented approach are illustrated.