Scenario-based modeling and solving research on robust weapon project planning problems

doi:10.21629/JSEE.2019.01.09

Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics ›› 2019, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (1): 85-99.doi: 10.21629/JSEE.2019.01.09

收稿日期:2018-01-30 出版日期:2019-02-27 发布日期:2019-02-27

Scenario-based modeling and solving research on robust weapon project planning problems

Boyuan XIA(), Qingsong ZHAO*(), Kewei YANG(), Yajie DOU(), Zhiwei YANG()

College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China

Received:2018-01-30 Online:2019-02-27 Published:2019-02-27
Contact: Qingsong ZHAO E-mail:xiaboyuan@nudt.edu.cn;zhaoqingsong@nudt.edu.cn;kayyang27@nudt.edu.cn;yajiedou_nudt@163.com;zhwyang88@126.com
About author:XIA Boyuan was born in 1994. He is a Ph.D. in National University of Defense Technology. His research interests are defense acquisition, complex systems and system portfolio selection and optimization. E-mail:xiaboyuan@nudt.edu.cn|ZHAO Qingsong was born in 1975. He is a Ph.D. and an associate professor in National University of Defense Technology. His research interests are system integration, defense acquisition and system-ofsystems requirement modeling, and complex system analysis. E-mail:zhaoqingsong@nudt.edu.cn|YANG Kewei was born in 1977. He is a Ph.D. and a professor in National University of Defense Technology. His research interests are system of systems (SoS) requirements modeling, SoS architecture design and optimization, and system Modeling and Simulation. E-mail:kayyang27@nudt.edu.cn|DOU Yajie was born in 1987. He is a Ph.D. and a lecturer in National University of Defense Technology. His research interests are weapon alternative decision and effectiveness evaluation, systemof-systems architecting and engineering management, and portfolio decision analysis. E-mail:yajiedou_nudt@163.com|YANG Zhiwei was born in 1988. He is a Ph.D. and a lecturer in National University of Defense Technology. His research interests are system optimization, and supply chain optimization. E-mail:zhwyang88@126.com
Supported by:
the National Social Science Foundation of China(15GJ003-278);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71501182);This work was supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China (15GJ003-278) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71501182)

摘要/Abstract

Abstract:

Weapon project planning (WPP) plays a critical role in the process of national defense development and establishment of the future national defense force. WPP faces the backgrounds of various uncertainties, intense inter-influence of weapon systems and involves modelling, assessment, and optimization procedures. The contents of this paper are mainly divided into three parts: first, the WPP processes are analyzed, and related elements are formulated to transform the qualitative problem to mathematics form; second, the value evaluation model of WPP solutions is proposed based on two criteria of total capability gap and total capability dispersion; third, two robustness optimization models are constructed based on the absolute robustness criterion and the robustness deviation criterion to support the robustness optimization process under multi-scenario. Finally, a case is studied to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed models and approaches.

Key words: weapon project planning (WPP), uncertainty, robustness, multi-stage, scenario

. [J]. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2019, 30(1): 85-99.

Boyuan XIA, Qingsong ZHAO, Kewei YANG, Yajie DOU, Zhiwei YANG. Scenario-based modeling and solving research on robust weapon project planning problems[J]. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2019, 30(1): 85-99.

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参考文献 30

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Weapon project type	Decision variable
Weapon projects not yet developed	Whether to develop the weapon projects and when
	The acquisition number of the weapons after being developed
	When to retire
Weapons already developed	The acquisition number of the weapons having been developed
Weapons already developed	When to retire

Serial	Condition description
1	When a candidate project is still in the development period, the project cannot be manufactured, meaning that the variables of acquisition amount in stages later than current time should be set as 0.
2	The variable of retirement time of a weapon project must be later than that of the service starting time.
3	The variable of the acquisition amount of a retired weapon must be set as 0 in stages after retirement.
4	The cost of each phase cannot exceed the budget.

Rule	Assembled capability value of $c_t$
Additive rule	$\sum c^{w_i}_t, i = 1, 2, \ldots, n$
Maximal rule	$\max\{c^{w_i}_i\}, i = 1, 2, \ldots, n$
Minimal rule	$\min\{c^{w_i}_t\}, i = 1, 2, \ldots, n$
Average rule	$\sum c^{w_i}_t/n, i = 1, 2, \ldots, n$

Scenario-based modeling and solving research on robust weapon project planning problems

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