Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics ›› 2011, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (6): 933-939.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4132.2011.06.009

• SYSTEMS ENGINEERING • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Prediction of efficient outputs based on GM (1, N) model and weak DEA efficiency

Jiefang Wang1,2,* and Sifeng Liu1   

  1. 1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, P. R. China;
    2. College of Management and Economics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450000, P. R. China
  • Online:2011-12-21 Published:2010-01-03


This paper expresses the efficient outputs of decisionmaking unit (DMU) as the sum of “average outputs” forecasted by a GM (1, N) model and "increased outputs" which reflect the difficulty to realize efficient outputs. The increased outputs are solved by linear programming using data envelopment analysis efficiency theories, wherein a new sample is introduced whose inputs are equal to the budget in the issue No. n + 1 and outputs are forecasted by the GM (1, N) model. The shortcoming in the existing methods that the forecasted efficient outputs may be less than the possible actual outputs according to developing trends of input-output rate in the periods of pre-n is overcome. The new prediction method provides decision-makers with more decisionmaking information, and the initial conditions are easy to be given.