Systems Engineering and Electronics

• SYSTEMS ENGINEERING • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Scenario-based approach for project portfolio selection in army engineering and manufacturing development

Pengle Zhang, Kewei Yang*, Yajie Dou, and Jiang Jiang   

  1. College of Information System and Management, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China
  • Online:2016-02-25 Published:2010-01-03


The decisions concerning portfolio selection for army engineering and manufacturing development projects determine the benefit of those projects to the country concerned. Projects are typically selected based on ex ante estimates of future return values, which are usually difficult to specify or only generated after project launch. A scenario-based approach is presented here to address the problem of selecting a project portfolio under incomplete scenario information and interdependency constraints. In the first stage, the relevant dominance concepts of scenario analysis are studied to handle the incomplete information. Then, a scenario-based programming approach is proposed to handle the interdependencies to obtain the projects, whose return values are multi-criteria with interval data. Finally, an illustrative example of army engineering and manufacturing development shows the feasibility and advantages of the scenario-based multi-objective programming approach.