Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics ›› 2019, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (4): 815-822.doi: 10.21629/JSEE.2019.04.18

• Reliability • Previous Articles    

HEP quantification strategy based on modified CREAM

Xing PAN*(), Huixiong WANG(), Ye LIN(), Tun LIU(), Xiaoxia WANG()   

  • Received:2018-01-12 Online:2019-08-01 Published:2019-09-01
  • Contact: Xing PAN E-mail:panxing@buaa.edu.cn;wanghuixiong@buaa.edu.cn;yelin@bu.edu;liu_tun@163.com;langshixuan@foxmail.com
  • About author:PAN Xing was born in 1979. He received his B.S. degree in mechanical engineering, and Ph.D. degree in systems engineering from Beihang University, Beijing, China, in 2000 and 2005 respectively. From 2005 to 2009, he was an assistant professor with the School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China. Since 2009, he has been an associate professor. From 2012 to 2013, he was a visiting scholar at the Department of Systems and Industrial Engineering, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA. He is currently an associate professor with the School of Reliability and Systems Engineering of Beihang University. His research interests include reliability engineering, systems engineering, and system risk analysis. E-mail:panxing@buaa.edu.cn|WANG Huixiong was born in 1995. He received his B.S. degree in safety science from School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, in 2018. He is currently a master student in the same school. His interests of research include systems engineering and complex network. E-mail:wanghuixiong@buaa.edu.cn|LIN Ye was born in 1993. She received her B.S. degree in aerospace engineering, and M.S. degree in systems engineering from Beihang University, Beijing, China, in 2015 and 2017 respectively. Currently, She is a Ph.D. candidate in systems engineering from Boston University, MA, USA. Her research interests include reliability engineering and systems engineering. E-mail:yelin@bu.edu|LIU Tun was born in 1996. He received his B.S. degree in mechanical science and engineering from Jilin University, Jilin, China, in 2017. He is currently pursuing his M.S. degree in reliability and systems engineering with the School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China. His research interests include human reliability analysis, reliability engineering, and system risk analysis. E-mail:liu_tun@163.com|WANG Xiaoxia was born in 1994. She received her B.S. degree in safety engineering from China University of Mining and Technology, Jiangsu, China. She is currently pursuing her M.S. degree in reliability and systems engineering with the School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University. Her research focus is human reliability, including quantification of human reliability for individuals and crews. E-mail:langshixuan@foxmail.com
  • Supported by:
    the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71171008);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71571004);This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71171008; 71571004)

Abstract:

The accurate quantification of human error probability (HEP) has long been a main pursuit for most human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This paper proposes a strategy to analyze and predict human error on the basis of a further modification of the existing cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) in HRA. Through providing a broader definition for the key parameters used in the quantification method, this paper produces a relatively flexible strategy to determine the nominal HEP (HEP0). Basing on this strategy, the actual quantification of HEP in CREAM is able to be applied to more verified conditions. To prove the validity of the method proposed, a case study of spacecraft launch is also introduced, in which the prediction derived from the method is proved consistent with real field data.

Key words: human reliability, cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM), context influence, nominal human error probability (HEP0)