Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics ›› 2024, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (6): 1482-1490.doi: 10.23919/JSEE.2024.000055

• SYSTEMS ENGINEERING • Previous Articles    

Key indexes identifying approach of weapon equipment system-of-systems effectiveness integrating Bayes method and dynamic grey incidence analysis model

Jingru ZHANG1(), Zhigeng FANG1(), Feng YE2,*(), Ding CHEN3()   

  1. 1 College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210006, China
    2 National Key Laboratory for Complex Systems Simulation, Institute of System Engineering, Academy of Military Science, Beijing 100020, China
    3 Shanghai Electro-Mechanical Engineering Institute, Shanghai 201109, China
  • Received:2022-11-14 Online:2024-12-18 Published:2025-01-14
  • Contact: Feng YE E-mail:jrzhang@nuaa.edu.cn;zhigengfang@163.com;13701384998@139.com;15151875620@163.com
  • About author:
    ZHANG Jingru was born in 1997. She received her bachelor’s degree from the College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, China, in 2020. She is currently working toward her Ph.D. degree. Her research interests are complex network, system of systems evaluation, and management of complex equipment development. E-mail: jrzhang@nuaa.edu.cn

    FANG Zhigeng was born 1962. He received his Ph.D. degree in management from Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, China, in 2007. In 2005, he joined the College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, where he is currently a professor. His research interests include reliability engineering and management of complex equipment development. E-mail: zhigengfang@163.com

    YE Feng was born in 1981. He received his master’s degree in military science from Beijing Institute of System Engineering in 2009. Now he is working in the Institute of System Engineering, Academy of Military Science, where he is currently an associate researcher. His research interests are system of systems modeling and equipment demonstration. E-mail: 13701384998@139.com

    CHEN Ding was born in 1990. He received his Ph.D. degree in management from Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, China, in 2019. Now he is working in Shanghai Electro-Mechanical Engineering Institute. His research interests are system of systems engineering and random process. E-mail: 15151875620@163.com
  • Supported by:
    This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72271124;72071111).

Abstract:

Aiming at the characteristics of multi-stage and (extremely) small samples of the identification problem of key effectiveness indexes of weapon equipment system-of-systems (WESoS), a Bayesian intelligent identification and inference model for system effectiveness assessment indexes based on dynamic grey incidence is proposed. The method uses multilayer Bayesian techniques, makes full use of historical statistics and empirical information, and determines the Bayesian estimation of the incidence degree of indexes, which effectively solves the difficulties of small sample size of effectiveness indexes and difficulty in obtaining incidence rules between indexes. Secondly, The method quantifies the incidence relationship between evaluation indexes and combat effectiveness based on Bayesian posterior grey incidence, and then identifies key system effectiveness evaluation indexes. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a case of screening key effectiveness indexes of a missile defensive system, and the analysis results show that the proposed method can fuse multi-moment information and extract multi-stage key indexes, and has good data extraction capability in the case of small samples.

Key words: weapon equipment system-of-systems (WESoS), effectiveness index system, effectiveness key index, Bayes theorem, grey incidence analysis, (extremely) small samples